US Think Tank Warns: India-Pakistan War Possible in 2026; Both Nations Ramp Up Arms Purchases
Updated: December 30, 2025, 6:00 PM
A prominent US think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has warned of a potential war between India and Pakistan in 2026. In its report titled "Conflicts to Watch in 2026, " the think tank states that rising terrorist activities could trigger another conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
It's notable that India and Pakistan clashed for four days in May, exchanging drone and missile strikes. The conflict erupted after Pakistani terrorists attacked tourists in Pulwama, killing 26 people. In response, India launched Operation Sindoor, destroying several Pakistani military installations. A ceasefire was eventually declared. Since then, no major terrorist attacks have occurred in Jammu and Kashmir. However, sources indicate over 30 Pakistani terrorists are hiding in the Jammu region this winter.
Both Sides Accelerate Arms Buildup Despite Ceasefire
Even after the truce, both countries are rapidly acquiring weapons. India's Defense Acquisition Council recently approved ₹79, 000 crore worth of defense equipment, including drones, air-to-air missiles, and guided bombs. Similarly, Pakistan is negotiating with Turkey and China for new drones and air defense systems—moves prompted by the setback it suffered in Operation Sindoor.
Broader Regional Risks
The CFR report also flags tensions between Pakistan and another neighbor. It predicts a possible Afghanistan-Pakistan war in 2026 due to cross-border terrorist attacks. Tensions escalated in October with heavy crossfire between Pakistan and the Taliban. Afghanistan accused Pakistan of bombing Kabul, while Islamabad claimed the Taliban sheltered terrorists who attacked it. Diplomatic ties between the two have since deteriorated.
India's Massive Defense Boost
On Monday, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved ₹79, 000 crore for arms and equipment across all three armed forces. The focus is on enhancing capabilities, particularly next-generation airborne early warning and control systems. Discussions emphasized promoting indigenous weapons: greater use by Indian forces could boost exports to other countries.